Metagame Mentor: Standard Win Rates and Lessons from Pro Tour Lorwyn Eclipsed

The recent Pro Tour Lorwyn Eclipsed delivered an exciting weekend of innovative Standard decks that pushed the format in new directions. The Top 8 showcased seven different archetypes, with the surprising Dimir Excruciator deck as the only repeat. Christoffer Larsen used Dimir Excruciator to claim the Pro Tour trophy.

The Standard Win Rates at the Pro Tour

The metagame breakdown made one thing immediately clear: Badgermole Cub decks were everywhere, collectively making up 44.8% of the field. Yet the rest of the field arrived ready to defeat Badgermole Cub, and overall, they succeeded.

Despite entering the weekend as the decks to beat, Simic Rhythm and Bant Rhythm fell short of expectations, and nearly all Badgermole Cub strategies had a disastrous performance. Taken together, decks with Badgermole Cub won merely 40% of their matches against non-Cub decks in the Standard Swiss rounds.

The Standard Decks and Players with Eight or More Wins

The players and decks that secured at least eight non-bye Standard wins at Pro Tour Lorwyn Eclipsed included Izzet Spellementals, Azorius Tempo, Dimir Midrange, Grixis Elementals, Izzet Elementals, Bant Airbending, Izzet Spellementals, Izzet Spellementals, Dimir Midrange, and Dimir Control.

Dimir Excruciator

The deck that ultimately won the Pro Tour, Dimir Excruciator, came as a major surprise. Seven players from Team Cosmos Heavy Play converged on a deck that no one saw coming. It was not specifically an anti-Cub deck, but Dimir Excruciator's strength lay in its central game plan built around Doomsday Excruciator.

Temur Harmonizer

Before the Pro Tour, if you had asked a thousand players to predict the finals matchup, nobody would have guessed Dimir Excruciator versus Temur Harmonizer. Yet five players from Team Sanctum of All, including finalist Toni Portolan, arrived with Temur Harmonizer and surprised everyone.

Izzet Elementals

Dividing the creature-heavy Elemental decks into archetypes was unusually challenging, as the strategy splintered into a wide range of builds across many different color combinations. However, a core Izzet build stood out even more clearly.

Azorius Tempo

Among all archetypes, Azorius Tempo achieved the highest overall win rate, an outcome few would have predicted heading into the event. This deck relies on Aven Interrupter; Aang, Swift Savior; and Avatar's Wrath to stall the opponent's development.

Dimir Control

The three players who registered classic Dimir Control—Gabriel Nassif, Reid Duke, and Matt Sperling—are seasoned Pro Tour veterans who routinely post strong results. What truly elevated the deck were new interactive tools from Lorwyn Eclipsed, such as Spell Snare and Requiting Hex.

Rakdos Monument

As a final notable newcomer, Rakdos Monument also delivered a quietly impressive showing. Adria Martin and Benton Madsen's lists revolved around a dense package of discard effects to exploit Monument to Endurance alongside the newly printed Moonshadow.

What's Next for Standard?

Pro Tour Lorwyn Eclipsed was truly the Pro Tour of spicy decks, and it has shaken up the Standard metagame in unexpected ways. With Dimir Excruciator, Temur Harmonizer, Izzet Elementals, and more all making their mark, the metagame's trajectory over the coming weeks is wide open.

Upcoming Standard events include the current round of RCQs and the Regional Championships, which will feature marquee events with cash prizes, event promos, and invitations to Pro Tour Secrets of Strixhaven. It promises to be an exciting stretch of Standard tournaments!