Booster Expected Value Calculator
The EV calculator tells you how much the cards inside a booster pack or box are worth on average, using up-to-date market prices. Pick a set to see its estimated per-pack value and decide whether cracking packs beats buying the singles you actually want.
What is expected value (EV)?
A booster pack's expected value is the average market value of the cards you can pull, weighted by the probability of each card and rarity. It's what a pack is 'worth' on the secondary market on average — which is almost always less than what it costs to buy.
How we calculate it
We sum the market price of each card multiplied by its probability of appearing in each Play Booster slot (commons, uncommons, the rare/mythic slot, the foil slots, and the special slots). The result is the expected value per pack; multiply by 30 to estimate a box.
Open packs or buy singles?
If you want a specific card, buying it as a single is almost always cheaper than chasing it through packs. Opening shines when you want the experience, want to play draft or sealed, or need lots of commons and uncommons for deck-building.
What drives a set's EV
- Chase cards: expensive mythics and rares hold nearly all the value.
- Reprints: sets that reprint pricey staples raise EV.
- Special slots: booster-fun cards, guest slots, and foils add value.
- Market timing: prices fall as more product is opened.
Is it worth opening an MTG booster box?
Almost never, if you're chasing a specific card: a box's expected value is usually lower than its price, because the price bakes in the store's margin and the 'fun tax' of cracking packs. Opening makes sense for the entertainment, for playing Limited (draft/sealed), or to grab a lot of commons and uncommons at once — not as an investment.
Why is the expected value lower than the box price?
Because the box price includes the manufacturer and store profit, while EV only reflects the secondary-market resale value of the cards. Most of a box's value is concentrated in a few chase rares and mythics; the rest are low-value commons and uncommons.
Does the calculation include foils and special slots?
Yes. Expected value accounts for the probability of each rarity, foil versions, and the special Play Booster slots (such as booster-fun cards, guest slots, and reprints), using the current market price of each version.
How often are prices updated?
Prices are based on market data that refreshes regularly, so the expected value reflects the recent market. Keep in mind that a new set's prices are very volatile during the first few weeks after release.
Which sets have the best expected value?
Sets packed with eternal-format staples (like the Modern Horizons sets) and sets with expensive reprints tend to have the highest EV. Pick a specific set on this page to see its estimated value per pack.